The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Format:Paperback
Publisher:Penguin Books Ltd
Published:28th Feb '08
Should be back in stock very soon
Everything you need to know about what you don't know
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions.
The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?
This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.
'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday
'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected * Guardian *
Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling * Financial Times *
It has altered modern thinking * The Times *
Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot * Sunday Times *
The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works -- Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
Great fun... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling -- Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics
The most prophetic voice of all * GQ *
ISBN: 9780141034591
Dimensions: 198mm x 128mm x 29mm
Weight: 354g
480 pages