Periodic Crises of Overproduction (1913)

Albert Aftalion’s Periodic Crises of Overproduction is an enlightening complement to Keynes’ General Theory, as it develops key macroeconomic concepts such as the accelerator principle from a detailed investigation of the interdependencies and temporal asymmetries of an industrial economy. It is an essential foundation for the economics of the medium term.

The aim of Albert Aftalion’s Periodic Crises of Overproduction is to lay the analytical building blocks of a medium-term approach to the theory and policy of economic fluctuations. Aftalion builds his theory on a disaggregated (structural) representation of the economic system that overcomes the conventional micro-macro dichotomy. This analysis eschews both the explanation of crises in terms of cumulative processes triggered by long-term factors and that in terms of purely contingent mismatches and ruptures. Aftalion highlights features such as lack of synchronization between sectors, different time horizons between socio-economic groups, and dissimilar speeds of change between production and consumption units. His approach draws key analytical concepts (such as the accelerator principle) from a detailed investigation of the interdependencies and temporal asymmetries of an industrial economy. It is an enlightening complement to Keynes’ General Theory.