Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems
Format:Hardback
Publisher:Taylor & Francis Ltd
Published:2nd Oct '17
Currently unavailable, and unfortunately no date known when it will be back
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- Paperback£89.99(9789058096944)
A hydroinformatics system represents an electronic knowledge encapsulator that models part of the real world and can be used for the simulation and analysis of physical, chemical and biological processes in water systems, in order to achieve a better management of the aquatic environment. Thus, modelling is at the heart of hydroinformatics. The theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos, and the extent to which recent improvements in the understanding of inherently nonlinear natural processes present challenges to the use of mathematical models in the analysis of water and environmental systems, are elaborated in this work. In particular, it demonstrates that the deterministic chaos present in many nonlinear systems can impose fundamental limitations on our ability to predict behaviour, even when well-defined mathematical models exist. On the other hand, methodologies and tools from the theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos can provide means for a better accuracy of short-term predictions as demonstrated through the practical applications in this work.
"This book is an excellent one. It is directed to the skeptic engineers who still refuse to embrace concept of uncertainty and continue to use deterministic approaches. This is due to the fact that books dealing with uncertainty seldom include any practical application. Therefore, many engineers assume that uncertainty modeling, be it of probabilistic, fuzzy, or convex nature, are reserved for research only. This book is a welcome harbinger which paves the way to systematic uncertainty analysis as an extremely practical problem…."
Dr. Issac Elishakoff, J. M. Rubin Distinguished Professorin Safety, Reliability and Security, Florida Atlantic University writing in Shock and Vibration 13 (2006) 63 IOS Press
Shock and Vibration 13 (2006) 63 63
IOS Press
Book Review
Modeling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems, by ShreedharMaskey, Taylor and Francis Group plc, London,
UK (ISBN 90-5809-6947)
This book deals with uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. Author bases his approach by observing that "like
all natural hazards flooding is complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon." Author applies probability theory
and fuzzy sets based theory; central point is the development of improved first-order second moment method using
a second-order reconstruction of the model function.
The temporal disaggregation method, presented in Chapter 4 (the previous one dealing with genuine randomness,
fuzziness or their hybrid) is utilized in Chapter 5 to flood forecasting model of Klodzko catchment located on the
river Nysa Klodzka in Poland; Chapter 6 utilizes the same model for Loire River in France. Author recommends
risk based flood forecasting and warning systems.
This book is an excellent one. It is directed to the skeptic engineers who still refuse to embrace concept of
uncertainty and continue to use deterministic approaches. This is due to the fact that books dealing with uncertainty
seldom include any practical application. Therefore, many engineers assume that uncertainty modeling, be it of
probabilistic, fuzzy, or convex nature, are reserved for research only. This book is a welcome harbinger which paves
the way to systematic uncertainty analysis as an extremely practical problem.
Dr. Issac Elishakoff
J. M. Rubin Distinguished Professor
in Safety, Reliability and Security
College of Engineering
Florida Atlantic University
Boca Raton, FL 33431-2825, USA
E-mail: [email protected]
ISSN 1070-9622/06/$17.00 © 2006 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved
ISBN: 9781138475052
Dimensions: unknown
Weight: 453g
192 pages