Critical Minerals, Critical Decisions

Critical energy transition minerals (CETMs) — such as lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements — are at the core of the global shift to low-carbon energy systems. For developing countries, these resources offer both a major opportunity for structural transformation and a risk of renewed dependency if managed without a coherent industrial strategy. This study examines how countries can leverage critical minerals for sustainable growth while navigating constraints imposed by global trade rules, investment treaties, and shifting geopolitics. Regional cooperation and value-chain integration are identified as essential to expand markets, share infrastructure, and build collective resilience. The study underscores that industrial policy must go beyond promoting value addition or moving from mining to processing. It should aim to foster broader economic diversification by strengthening backward, forward, and lateral linkages between the mining sector and other productive sectors of the economy, to harness critical minerals for structural transformation and sustainable development. Drawing on case studies from Latin America (Brazil, Chile, Argentina) and Africa (Namibia, Zambia), the report finds converging policy priorities: capability building, value addition, sustainable governance, and institutional coordination — consistent with the Azzolin and Pietrobelli (2025) taxonomy of policy instruments for mining value chains.